When Russia was playing Greece on the last day of the Group Stage of Euro 2012, I also got confused about the permutations and who will qualify in case of what. So do not blame yourself if you found it confusing too. It is all about the “Regulations of the UEFA European Football Championship 2010-2012″ and more specifically section 8.07 which you can find here.
In any case, and to make things easier, here are the permutations and the scenarios that will decide the future of Italy, Holland (the Netherlands), Portugal, and Denmark, and their progress to the quarter-finals stage.
Holland (The Netherlands):
- ONLY a win against Portugal will revive their chances. A draw or a loss will eliminate them.
- The win is also conditional: A +2 goal difference, and a loss for Denmark against Germany.
- Any change in any of these conditions will see them out.
- Any win against Holland means they qualify.
- A draw qualifies them only if Denmark loses to Germany.
- A loss qualifies them only if Denmark loses to Germany.
- A win qualifies Denmark, a loss eliminates them
- A draw qualifies Denmark only if Holland beats Portugal
- Any win against Ireland AND a 0-0 draw for Croatia and Spain, qualifies Italy
- A +2 goal difference win (except 2-0) AND a 1-1 draw for Croatia and Spain, qualifies Italy
- Any win against Ireland AND a 2-2 draw for Croatia and Spain, eliminates Italy
- A loss or a draw eliminates Italy.
I hope this explained all the scenarios in a simple manner, and please let me know if you had any more questions or things to clarify. If you are not yet sure, here is a link for the standings, and you are welcome to make your oqn permutations.