When Russia was playing Greece on the last day of the Group Stage of Euro 2012, I also got confused about the permutations and who will qualify in case of what. So do not blame yourself if you found it confusing too. It is all about the “Regulations of the UEFA European Football Championship 2010-2012″ and more specifically section 8.07 which you can find here.
In any case, and to make things easier, here are the permutations and the scenarios that will decide the future of Italy, Holland (the Netherlands), Portugal, and Denmark, and their progress to the quarter-finals stage.
Holland (The Netherlands):
- ONLY a win against Portugal will revive their chances. A draw or a loss will eliminate them.
- The win is also conditional: A +2 goal difference, and a loss for Denmark against Germany.
- Any change in any of these conditions will see them out.
Portugal:
- Any win against Holland means they qualify.
- A draw qualifies them only if Denmark loses to Germany.
- A loss qualifies them only if Denmark loses to Germany.
Denmark:
- A win qualifies Denmark, a loss eliminates them
- A draw qualifies Denmark only if Holland beats Portugal
Italy:
- Any win against Ireland AND a 0-0 draw for Croatia and Spain, qualifies Italy
- A +2 goal difference win (except 2-0) AND a 1-1 draw for Croatia and Spain, qualifies Italy
- Any win against Ireland AND a 2-2 draw for Croatia and Spain, eliminates Italy
- A loss or a draw eliminates Italy.
I hope this explained all the scenarios in a simple manner, and please let me know if you had any more questions or things to clarify. If you are not yet sure, here is a link for the standings, and you are welcome to make your oqn permutations.
Italy is afraid that Spain draws Croatia 2-2, but does Italy deserve to qualify?
June 17th, 2012 at 14:20
[...] Either way, sports blog figo29 has taken his time to write out a detailed scenario for all the different possibilities for the next few days playing out. So if you want to know, for example, how Holland can actually still advance despite having lost twice, I invite you to read this very simple analysis here. [...]
June 17th, 2012 at 22:26
so it’s the 1v1 rule unless there is a 3 way draw, then it’s the goal difference rule.. right?
June 17th, 2012 at 22:28
Yes. Absolutely right.
June 18th, 2012 at 02:26
Hi, great read! I don’t get this tho: “Any win against Ireland AND a 0-0 draw for Croatia and Spain, qualifies Italy”, Why? If Italy wins 1-0 then Spain, Croatia and Italy would all have 5 points, Italy with +1 i goal differnce and Croatia with +2 i GD. Also if Spain – Croatia ends 2-2 and Italy wins 5-0, then Italy would have more i GD too. Please help me understand
June 18th, 2012 at 05:32
Hi Jonas. When it’s a 3 way tie, they look at the goals and goal difference between the 3 teams only, so they exclude the goals against Ireland (just look at it as a mini league between 3 teams). Hope this clarifies it.
June 18th, 2012 at 02:27
“i GD” = in GD
June 18th, 2012 at 22:44
Thank you! I’ve been going crazy trying to figure it out